Kayvon Thibodeaux's NFL Draft fate is an unfair mystery - why the Oregon star is a warning to beware of group-think

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Oregon edge Kayvon Thibodeaux reflects on his performance at the NFL Scouting Combine and looks ahead to his future in the league

There is always one. And Kayvon Thibodeaux seems to be that consensus 'one' as we scrutinise, stone-turn and overthink towards the 2022 NFL Draft.

The polarising one, the group-think brunt-bearing one, the ummed-and-ahed one, the one wondering whether his candid offering of a blue-chip pass-rushing arsenal has become invisible.

Rewind the clock to last spring, pre-Aidan Hutchinson wrecking-ball clinics, pre-Georgia's National Championship-winning seek-and-destroy front, and Oregon's star edge was - unequivocally in some minds - the No 1 pick in-waiting. A top five selection at the very minimum.

He had put up nine sacks, 35 tackles, 14 tackles for loss and three pass defenses in 13 games as 2019 Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year, followed by three sacks, 42 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss and three pass defenses in seven games of a Covid-truncated 2020 campaign.

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The length, instant get-off and bulldozing power to blow up plays was class-leading, while any minor chinks in his armour, namely undeveloped hand use, were deemed coachable at the next level.

As we enter Draft month not only has that stance seemingly been scrapped, but Thibodeaux finds his top 10 credentials taking shrapnel from all directions. Occasionally-anonymous, oft-unsubstantiated, tenuous shrapnel accounting for the view of one that has passed through some and landed on your social media feed.

"The most ridiculous thing I've heard is that I'm not the best player in this draft. I really don't listen to anything else, but that to me, that's outrageous. With the film, with the numbers and what I can do as far as my ability, I have confidence in what I can do."

Thibodeaux speaking to reporters at his Pro Day on April 1

Spend some time watching the film and you might find yourself wondering how and why. You might not, but that is the point - make your own mind up.

A single college season can remodel the Draft landscape: a former backup in Joe Burrow can strut his way from afterthought, beyond Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa as the NFL's new crush; more recently, a projected early first-rounder in Spencer Rattler can encounter a setback season that leaves him facing a rest of sorts with a new programme; a Hutchinson can propel himself to the likely No 1 pick with a breakout 2021 in Michigan; a Zach Wilson or Trey Lance can leapfrog Justin Fields despite their combined sample size of live-action evidence being significantly smaller.

Sometimes it lives up to expectation, sometimes it can skew opinions. This feels a lot like the latter.

Thibodeaux's situation bears some similarities to that of former Miami pass rusher Gregory Rousseau, who skidded to the Buffalo Bills at 30th overall last year having been touted as a top five pick 12 months earlier. Penei Sewell was hailed as the next generational offensive tackle before running into pedantic assessments over whether he had progressed enough despite the substantial head-start he had earned himself, and even this year Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton, the best player in the entire class for some, has seen his stock questioned in light of a wonky 40-yard dash resulting in a time less blistering than others in his position.

In the case of Thibodeaux, burst and bludgeon power warranting designated protection plans has been clouded by whispers of 'character concerns' and 'lack of love for the game' and a 'takes plays off' motor. Evidence feels short in supply, questions of his drive feel unfair.

ESPN analyst Todd McShay cited "concerns that he just doesn't play with the same fire as some other top prospects" and that his "floor is lower than what you would want for a top-five pick".

NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah meanwhile relayed supposed disapproval among teams over Thibodeaux's decision to withdraw from Combine workouts early after taking part in just the 40-yard dash (4.58) and bench press (27 reps).

Jeremiah notably has him as the third overall pick to the Houston Texans in his latest Mock Draft as well as his No 10-ranked prospect in this year's class, refraining from allowing grumbles to outweigh the brawn and production on tape, unlike others.

• Jeremiah on Thibodaux: "Thibodeaux has ideal size (6-5, 258), length and explosiveness. He moved up and down the line of scrimmage in the Ducks' scheme, but primarily stood up on the edge. He shows a tremendous burst off the snap and excels using his inside arm to stab, create space, close and finish. He also has an effective shake/bull move to rock and displace offensive tackles. Thibodeaux does have some ankle tightness at the top of his rush; he isn't an elite bender. Against the run, he easily stacks blocks vs. tackles and tight ends while locating the football. He has speed to close from the back side but his effort is spotty. Overall, Thibodeaux doesn't have ideal flexibility, but his blend of speed and power should translate successfully at next level."

With the nation gawping at his April 1 Pro Day, reaction to Thibodeaux's nine-foot 11-inch broad jump seemed to favour its 15th-best ranking among 23 edge rushers at the combine (okay, not emphatic) while neglecting the fact it was two inches further than Hutchinson's effort. Welcome to the Draft's measurement minefield.

His interest in capitalising on NIL deals that allow college athletes to profit off their hard-earned reputation, his launch of a cryptocurrency business and his mindfulness for ventures beyond football such as his desire to build a school have also become straw-clutching avenues to doubt over his commitment. Welcome to the Draft's 'forget about the film' fickleness. In fact, the latter sounds like anything but a character concern.

The narrative surrounding his supposed 'slide' also elects to overlook Hutchinson's success with an upper echelon talent like David Ojabo for assistance, and Travon Walker's place in a talent-rich Kirby Smart-masterminded defense of Jordan Davis, Nakobe Dean, Devonte Wyatt, Channing Tindall, Quay Walker and then some, along with his rawness as a pass rusher. Thibodeaux did not have that calibre of support.

Beware of turning a blind eye to the tape of a high-ceiling disruptor, whose burst at the snap defies his six-foot-five 260-pound frame, whose Euro step rush and get-skinny agility enables him to scoot around the pocket, whose upper-body strength and balance upon engagement often makes up for less violent hands than others and a collection of pass rush moves that has room to be expanded by NFL coaches.

Where will Thibodeaux land later this month?

Stick on the tape and he is just as explosive from a two or three-point stance while aligned as anything from a nine-tech to stunting three-tech, while he does not need to rely on wide-zone to gather the momentum required to win on the edge.

Oregon rivals would implement consistent double-team packages to slow him, and direct outside-zone runs away from him, and base read-option concepts on HIS movements and decision-making.

You start to question the 'motor-lacking' critics when you observe him manhandle a tackle and guard in unison before tearing off to hunt down a breakaway runner (on the tape), or when he spins inside as a four-tech on the weak side to scurry after the field-side runner (on the tape), or when you watch him usher the right tackle wide to lure the quarterback B-gap escape and race after him in pursuit. Aside from the power and the frightening first step, there is a willingness to scale the pocket perimeter and to harass ball carriers as a lateral obstacle, both of which account for 'proof of motor' in their own right.

In watching Thibodeaux it was no rare occurrence for a chip block to be followed by a double team in a 'stop at all costs' approach to dealing with him, or for an offense to assign a motion-man as a jet-sweep ploy actually intended to team up with the tackle or guard tasked with stopping him. Leaving him one-on-one was kamikaze in some instances.

What could be perceived as 'plays off' might be mistaken for a spy-like role at times. Oregon were no strangers to simulating pressure with him before retreating their alpha two-or-three steps in order to both alter the quarterback's pre-snap picture as well as exploit Thibodeaux's acceleration and open-space fluidity that saw him emerge as an accomplished run defender.

His IQ as a coverage defender is perhaps an underrated part of his game, one play against Washington State last season seeing him perfect a split-second decision to drift across with the checkdown option and sacrifice a stat-padding sack upon realising his opposite edge rusher had broken into the backfield.

Another series against UCLA demonstrated him slipping into coverage to cut off the running back flat, before speed-rushing, and smoking, a helpless tight end for a red zone, drive-wrecking sack.

There were even frustrations among some that he was dropped too often rather than planted at the line of scrimmage where teams feared him most.

A standout performance came in Oregon's victory over USC in the 2020 Pac-12 Championship Game, during which he gave now-New York Jets offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker a torrid afternoon. His sole sack was a sign of what NFL teams could do with him, stutter-step simulated pressure from the linebacker distracting the guard to tee up the one-on-one, from which Thibodeaux dipped his shoulder and soared beyond Vera-Tucker to smother Kedon Slovis.

In the same game was more evidence of his intelligence as he read a hand-off to immediately create the inside angle on Vera-Tucker and wrap up the runner at the line of scrimmage, while lightening shut-down speed was evidenced when he shadowed Slovis' tight end read before taking off to pummel the quarterback for a loss.

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Highlights from Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson's 2022 NFL Scouting Combine workout.

Granted, there are moments that leave you wondering why the strongest and biggest and fastest man on the field is not dominating play-after-play. But between playing through injury in 2021 and the opposition desire to keep him quiet, concerns over motor and effort levels have become exaggerated. Hutchinson's relentlessness should be treated as a reflection of him more so than an indictment of Thibodeaux.

The case of Thibodeaux can be a reminder of the worst of what the NFL Draft can be in regards to late criticisms blurring talent, production and upside.

His counter movements will enhance as his hand work is developed, while playing with NFL talent will carve more openings for him.

He rocks linemen with pure speed and power, he has refined awareness and side-to-side burst as a run defender, he has evidence of tremendous hustle. Physically, he offers everything you could wish for.

This isn't about denying Hutchinson's credentials as the first overall selection or demanding support for Thibodeaux, but a warning not to be drawn in by bandwagoning.

With that said, there is no scenario in which he should fall from the top 10, arguably even the top five.

Be your own set of eyes.