Alex Volkanovski versus The Korean Zombie in a featherweight title bout tops an exciting bill at UFC 273 in Jacksonville; Aljamain Sterling faces Petr Yan in a huge grudge match while Gilbert Burns takes on Khamzat Chimaev
Wednesday 6 April 2022 16:08, UK
Jacksonville's VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena hosts UFC 273 this weekend with some thrilling bouts on the card, including a fascinating clash for the featherweight title - but who will come out on top in the fights of the night?
We love the Korean Zombie, don't we? Of course we do. Every time he steps in the cage you feel you're going to watch a fight-of-the-year contender. No nonsense, always brings it and is as laidback as you can expect a professional fighter to be. So it's great to see him back with a title shot nine years after his first crack.
The Zombie nickname can be a bit misleading here as well. His chin is ridiculous and he doesn't respond to getting punched like a human being. He's completely nails. But when you think of having a scrap with the undead you probably think about them relentlessly marching forward. But that's not quite what you get here.
He's a calculated counter-puncher. He does like to take the centre of the cage, but he's patient, even though he's more than happy to mix it up. He's got real punching power and he's dangerous on the floor, capable of throwing up an array of submissions. No doubt, he'll be a threat as long as this fight goes and will be looking for a big shot or sub.
But if I was going to design a fighter to beat Zombie, it would be someone with constant movement and excellent distance control. Someone who can keep Zombie on his heels with feints. Someone who can push and maintain the pace. Someone who throws combinations therefore making it difficult to time counters. And someone who knows how to keep himself safe on the floor. Come on down, Alex Volkanovski!
Volk is right at the pinnacle of the sport. Mendes, Aldo, Holloway and Ortega is an extraordinary winning run and he is already in the discussion for greatest featherweight of all time. His striking is so crisp. His engine is incredible. And his ground and pound looks horrendous to be on the end of. He always looks comfortable wherever the fight goes. His toughness is also absurd. I nearly passed out watching Ortega sink in that guillotine. But Volk found a way to win. He always does.
Zombie needs Volk to act uncharacteristically. He wants him to be pushed up against the fence, to load up with single shots and to break his usual rhythm. Leopards aren't known for changing spots and I think it's a long shot for Zombie. I don't see him being knocked out cold and I can definitely see him having success early. But I do expect Volk to dominate around the mid-point of the fight and I see a bloody Zombie getting stopped late on after a brave effort.
Prediction: Volkanovski by stoppage.
This card has got a little bit of everything. In this fight we've got the grudge match. Their first fight a year ago ended with Yan being disqualified for an illegal knee. Aljo threw the belt on the floor before leaving the cage. But since then he has embraced being the champ. Aljo's faced accusations of taking a dive, which may be harsh, but public opinion is that he certainly made the most of it to get Yan disqualified. Yan has been overtly bitter and you do wonder how many times a day he thinks about Aljo swanning around with his belt around his shoulder.
So how will Yan handle this bubbling animosity? He is usually utterly stoic. But Aljo clearly gets under his skin. He can use that as a weapon to nullify one of Yan's strengths: his calmness. I expect Aljo to ramp up how loud and proud he is about holding the belt over the coming days. He's got a full week to campaign and anger Yan. If he can break his usual demeanour then that'll be a big plus for Aljo.
What did they both learn from the first fight? Aljo learned that Yan can lack discipline. He also learned that he can have success with some of his more unpredictable attacks, such as his flying knee. But perhaps the more valuable lesson will be that he can't blitz Yan and sustain it. He did well in the first round, but his output was massive. He threw four times as many strikes without the rewards you might expect. He can't keep that going, so he knows he needs to be more efficient and smarter. But will that just invite pressure from Yan?
One of the big takeaways for Yan will be that he felt Aljo wilting. At the end of the fight he was very comfortable and completely in control. The fight was only going one way, which makes the knee even more bizarre. Yan knows he can take Aljo to the brink and also that he can handle Aljo even when he's going full throttle.
The fact that Yan followed up that disappointment with his performance against Corey Sandhagen shows he is still the No 1 in the division, regardless of who walks into the cage second on Saturday night. Does Aljo have the ability to keep Yan away from him while not expending too much energy? It's a big ask, and as skilled as Sterling is I don't think he has enough to hang in there with Yan for 25 minutes.
Prediction: Yan by stoppage.
Has anyone ever made getting wins in the UFC look easier than Khamzat Chimaev? He hasn't suffered a scratch in his four fights. It's been utter domination. He's controlled every second of every fight and it's all been a bit scary, hasn't it?
We've seen wrestlers burst onto the scene before, but they usually show that their striking needs to catch up. Even the great Khabib Nurmagomedov needed time to reach his final form. There's no sign of those deficiencies with Khamzat. His striking technique is textbook.
The really exciting thing is that I get the impression we've only seen a slither of what he really has to offer. Stories of mythical endurance are coming out of the Allstar gym in Stockholm and our own Darren Till seems enamoured by what Khamzat does in the training room. His confidence will be through the roof. Why wouldn't it be?
But this is still a massive step up for him. Khamzat's last opponent Li Jingliang is a tough fighter, but he's not on the same level as Gilbert Burns. It is a hell of a litmus test. As a multiple-time jiu-jitsu champion Burns is as dangerous as they come on the ground. He has real power in his punches too. He also has variety in his strikes, and with the constant threat of the takedown he knows how to keep his opponents guessing.
You'd normally advise fighters to not go to the ground with Burns. He thrives in the flow of scrambles and often comes out with an arm tucked away. But Khamzat's ground game is so suffocating that he might back himself to take it to the floor without fear of what Burns can come back with. This could be a mistake. Make just one error with Burns and he can finish the fight.
Size could well matter in this one too. Burns wasn't a huge lightweight before moving up to 170lbs. Meanwhile, Khamzat is massive at welterweight and has made it clear that he will end up at light-heavyweight. On the night there will be a noticeable difference in weight.
One thing that could work in Burns' favour is Khamzat's desire to please. He wants to put on a show as this is his first time in front of an American crowd. If he gets reckless and is too keen to push for a finish then Burns has all the tools to take advantage of Khamzat's carelessness.
Also, as much as Chimaev has looked incredible, how do you think Burns would get on with his opponents John Phillips, Rhys McKee, Gerald Meerschaert and Li Jingliang? That's four dominant wins for Durinho as well.
The more I stare at this match-up, the more I like Burns' chances. You can only go on what you've seen and we have no idea how Chimaev will deal with resistance. He's never faced anyone who brings real danger to the fight. This sport is littered with fighters who skip steps to get to the top and come up short. Doing five rounds at the elite level is extremely difficult, regardless of talent. I think Burns will be able to weather the storm, use his experience to drag the fight out and find some openings. If I'm wrong then expect Borz to get a title shot this year.
Prediction: Burns by decision.
